The Hammer’s a weapon of war Just ask those who fought against Thor At midnight on Friday Iran learned the hard way That Trump wields one too when called for The interesting thing early on Is this clearly ain’t a black swan While oil did rise Which was no surprise Most risk gave an aggregate yawn
It’s almost a sense of calm, meaning, where almost everyone knew Iran getting a nuclear weapon was really bad. Yet as a whole the country is tired of endless wars and losing them because they weren’t worth starting. But a sigh of relief came when (if ultimately true) destroying their nuclear sites was a necessary risk vs the risk of not doing it. The quietness of the markets and largely ignored actions from other Middle Eastern countries leads me to believe a large majority of the world knew this was somewhat an evil necessity for immediate and short/middle term global security. Just my opinion. Great take Andy, I really enjoyed it.
Hey Andy, well written. I completely agree with your view on Iran. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz feels more like a scare tactic than a real risk. In addition to what you mentioned, I’d add that Saudi Arabia and UAE already developed alternative infrastructures. For example, Saudi Aramco is already shifting seaborne crude flows away from the Strait of Hormuz by using its East-West pipeline to transport oil overland to ports on the Red Sea.
Similarly, the UAE’s upgrades have allowed them to boost exports of their lighter crude grades and increase use of the pipeline to the Fujairah export terminal. This increased daily use of the pipeline limits the extra capacity available to reroute additional volumes around the Strait of Hormuz. So, the potential disruptions could be offset by these pipelines.
It’s almost a sense of calm, meaning, where almost everyone knew Iran getting a nuclear weapon was really bad. Yet as a whole the country is tired of endless wars and losing them because they weren’t worth starting. But a sigh of relief came when (if ultimately true) destroying their nuclear sites was a necessary risk vs the risk of not doing it. The quietness of the markets and largely ignored actions from other Middle Eastern countries leads me to believe a large majority of the world knew this was somewhat an evil necessity for immediate and short/middle term global security. Just my opinion. Great take Andy, I really enjoyed it.
Hey Andy, well written. I completely agree with your view on Iran. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz feels more like a scare tactic than a real risk. In addition to what you mentioned, I’d add that Saudi Arabia and UAE already developed alternative infrastructures. For example, Saudi Aramco is already shifting seaborne crude flows away from the Strait of Hormuz by using its East-West pipeline to transport oil overland to ports on the Red Sea.
Similarly, the UAE’s upgrades have allowed them to boost exports of their lighter crude grades and increase use of the pipeline to the Fujairah export terminal. This increased daily use of the pipeline limits the extra capacity available to reroute additional volumes around the Strait of Hormuz. So, the potential disruptions could be offset by these pipelines.
Alex, yes, I read that as well. absent an actual nuclear explosion, I have a feeling this is going to be a big nothing burger